I’ve lived and worked in Afghanistan for eights years. I’ve watched the results of ethnic chaos and diversity and the way parallel power structures emerge in the wake of a weakening nation-state. There is much happening in Afghanistan that could show a possible future of Europe if it continues on its current trajectory. Living and surviving here has given me more than a few ideas about how to survive what is coming to Europe.
Afghanistan is not a country as we would recognise it. As a nation it is a fairly modern invention, drawn up as an artificial buffer zone between British India and the Russian Empire during the days of the Great Game. Its history has left it a society made up of competing tribes and ethnicities which distrust and resent one another. There is little sense of a universal national identity. Afghans identify themselves by their tribe, faith, and family and feel little allegiance to a distant and corrupt national government and this becomes more pronounced the further away from the cities you get.
Just within living memory Afghanistan has been a monarchy, a Marxist puppet regime, an Islamic theocracy and now a very poor facsimile of Western style democracy, with every transition being violent and chaotic. Democracy is a strange system of governance to many Afghans. Afghans vote tribally, and they often vote not for the candidate they want to win, but for the candidate they think is going to win. People bet on the strong horse, and in conflict-ravaged Afghanistan that isn’t called democracy.
Until recently the democratic government has been backed up by a huge Western military intervention but that mission is slowly drawing to a close. NATO’s fighting mission has ended and what troops remain are in training and liaison roles. Responsibility for law and security has been handed over to the Afghans. Once there were over a hundred thousand NATO soldiers here in bases all over the country. Now the NATO military presence is a fraction of what it once was based in a few highly fortified camps in and around the major cities.
In the wake of a weak central government parallel power structures emerge. The national government and its army and police, are backed up, for now, by the Western powers. There are also tribal and ethnic allegiances. There are extensive organised criminal networks and tribal warlords and the latent Taliban insurgency who have known all along that the West could not stay forever.
All these power structures are vying for the loyalty of the people in one way or another. The official government offers Western style democracy and governance, rights for women, schools, infrastructure. The insurgency want to remove modern Western influences and re-establish their fundamentalist theocracy. The criminal gangs want to continue their opium growing, kidnapping, extortion and protection rackets. There is often a lot of overlap between these groups and their agendas.
In every province there is the official governor and there is also the insurgent shadow governor with his own support base. The loyalty of the people ebbs and flows according to who appears to be the strongest and who offers them what they want, and what they want is not Western style liberal values and democracy.
The national government has very little influence in the remote rural regions where goods are still moved around on the backs of mules. Government intrusion and overreach is not the chief concern of farmers and shepherds and tribesmen. The Western military have retreated to the cities and fortresses. The Afghan security forces are distant, corrupt, inept and wracked with conflicting loyalties. It’s a violent and dangerous world and modern concepts like democracy play second fiddle to security and the survival of the tribe.
Western style democracy was believed in only when the armoured vehicles were rumbling through the villages to back it up. The MRAPs have gone and with them went any pretence of democracy. Some semblance of order still exists in the cities, but it takes police armed with RPGs and machine guns mounted on pickup trucks to enforce it.
The future of Europe
All this sounds far removed from life in the West, but it is the way that we are heading. It will not happen overnight and it may never get quite as bad as Afghanistan, but the warning signs are already here. Faith in the political ruling classes and even democracy itself is at an all time low and still falling. Identitarian politics is on the rise and racial awareness is not the taboo subject it once was. Despite the huge effort expended on convincing people of the benefits of de-culturalism, people still wilfully segregate themselves as much as possible. Dissent is no longer mumbled quietly but spoken openly.
In Europe we are already at the stage where the police can no longer protect the people. In many cities the police cannot even protect themselves. They have ceded pockets of urban territory to hostile aliens. Muslim immigrants live in de facto autonomous enclaves with their own power structures, laws, courts, and religious police.
Police risk recriminations for trying to arrest violently ungovernable blacks. The simplest altercation between blacks and police can erupt into nationwide riots. The police are understandably going to come to the conclusion that it’s just not worth policing black neighbourhoods. Blacks will be left to kill one another, and anybody else unfortunate enough to live near them.
Instead of tackling organised immigrant crime or violent ghettos police will go after the easy targets – domesticated Europeans who will pay their fines and don’t put up any resistance. Under the guise of community policing, London’s Metropolitan Police are now only accepting applications from people who speak languages other than English, effectively excluding native Londoners from their own police force and leaving them to the mercy of a foreign mercenary police force.
As the economy dwindles more people will turn to crime and the grey economy. Gangs will become more powerful and compete for resources and territory and engage in drugs, prostitution, people trafficking and extortion.
The front lines of the War on Terror and the Islamic insurgency will be brought to Europe through immigration. The same governments that allow uncontrolled immigration to continue will claim credit for stopping occasional terror attacks. There will still be more complex attacks on European soil. They will occur mainly in big cities but insurgents may seek easier high-profile targets elsewhere as a response to a heavier police presence in the cities. In a world where every dark face could be hostile, more Europeans will be forced to embrace ethnic solidarity with one another.
As the West continues on its decline we will see government presence shrink from rural areas as it consolidates itself in the cities and protects its centres of business, finance and politics. The system is doomed to fail but it will first exhaust itself and its citizens trying to sustain itself for as long as possible. Everything will slowly stop working, taxes will go up and spending will be cut in a desperate attempt to keep things afloat. Media and technology will work overtime to keep the people distracted from the gradual ruination of their nations and convince them that everything is fine.
The threat of terrorism and low intensity conflict will see government take measures to protect itself and those who work for it. The police will become more militarised. Politicians and civil servants will hide in fortified green zones, albeit visually softer than the reinforced concrete and Hesco ones that were built in Baghdad and Kabul. Wealthy civilians will build themselves secure communities with walls and razor wire guarded by private security while the rabble will be forced to squabble amongst each other in the slums.
As Europe become less European things will stop working in the ways in which we are accustomed. People will care less about their community and environment. Trash will be collected less frequently and left piled up in the streets. Utilities like power and water will become less reliable. Outages will happen more often and when they do they will take longer to be repaired. Public health services already struggling to cope with Western lifestyle problems such as obesity will buckle under the strain of third world disease outbreaks. London is already the European capital of tuberculosis, a disease we had eradicated but has since re-emerged in the wake of massive third world immigration.
In short, it is what we already know is happening to our countries: the first world will slowly come to resemble the third world. It’s a bleak picture, but in every crisis lies opportunity. Government cannot be everywhere all the time and its authority will slowly recede from the rural areas as it seeks to secure the urban centres. There will be room for alternative power structures to emerge and assert themselves in the small towns. Men who organise now will be best placed to defend and help their community in the absence of law and order. As faith in government shrinks, Europeans will be forced to rely on one another. Early organisation and preparation becomes paramount.
When the world becomes more dangerous, freedom takes second place to security. Voting will mean nothing but you will nevertheless be more invested in your community without it. When money no longer offers use or comfort European people will learn to take care of their own people first. In difficult times people align with those who are most like themselves. Family, kin, blood and soil. As everything else is run into the ground those who can organise and provide their community with security and basic necessities like clean water, food and energy will be better placed than those who never speak to their neighbours or do not even speak the same language.
I see no reason why Europeans cannot turn their small communities into no-go areas for outsiders. If you don’t want your small town to turn into London then organise now to make sure that it doesn’t. Why not a parallel power structure which spotlights the failings of democracy and gently leads people towards reactionary local governance? Why not a European insurgency based on radically traditional values that in an emergency can offer their community not only the basics like food, water and security but also the spiritual and moral guidance that has been lacking in the modern age? Why not a rural police force that protects the community? A militia that defends the community not only from criminals gangs but also from hostile foreign influence, whether it be radical Islam or something like an increasingly authoritarian European Union. Why not a warrior code of honour instilled in every man to make sure that the European tradition survives into the future and meets its destiny?
The Afghans have their faith, tribe and code of honour as their rock during constant violence and hardship. As Europe declines the European man needs to look inside himself and to rediscover his own faith, tribe and code of honour if he wants to survive.